Monza is decided by straight-line efficiency and slipstream mathematics more than by cornering ability. Wing levels are stripped back, so teams with a strong power unit and low drag tend to come alive here even if their season form is ordinary. Qualifying matters less than usual because the passing zones are real, which means grid slips can be recovered. Tyre degradation is typically mild and one-stop strategies dominate, so the pit wall has fewer levers to pull. Watch for tow games in qualifying, which can distort the grid, and for safety cars triggered by first-lap chicane chaos. Backing a driver who is fearless on the brakes and calm in traffic is usually sounder than backing the fastest car.

With no form book, treat Madrid as a genuine unknown and tip accordingly. New surfaces are typically green and evolve quickly, which favours teams that read practice well and drivers comfortable committing to walls they have only seen in a simulator. Set-up compromise between the fast and technical sections should separate the field more than usual, so expect an unrepresentative Friday and a meaningful Saturday. Street-adjacent layouts carry an elevated safety-car risk, and first-year events often produce interruptions from debris and barrier repairs, which raises the value of strategic flexibility. Be wary of assuming season-long form holds; adaptability and clean execution matter more at a circuit nobody has raced.

Few circuits shuffle the order like Baku. The extreme wing-level compromise between an enormous straight and a claustrophobic old town means teams arrive with genuinely different answers, and the fastest car over a season is not always the fastest car here. Walls are close, the surface is slippery and cold early, and safety cars are close to an expectation rather than a risk, so strategy is frequently decided by luck of timing rather than planning. Qualifying position helps but is far from decisive given the long DRS run. Favour drivers with precision in tight walls and the composure to still be running at the end, and think twice before assuming a favourite converts.