With no form book, treat Madrid as a genuine unknown and tip accordingly. New surfaces are typically green and evolve quickly, which favours teams that read practice well and drivers comfortable committing to walls they have only seen in a simulator. Set-up compromise between the fast and technical sections should separate the field more than usual, so expect an unrepresentative Friday and a meaningful Saturday. Street-adjacent layouts carry an elevated safety-car risk, and first-year events often produce interruptions from debris and barrier repairs, which raises the value of strategic flexibility. Be wary of assuming season-long form holds; adaptability and clean execution matter more at a circuit nobody has raced.