Nobody has raced a Formula 1 car at Sepang since 2017, and never one of this year's cars, so there is no current form guide. Treat practice as the main evidence. Heat is the central variable: track temperatures punish rear tyres, so cars that are kind to their tyres over a long stint tend to be rewarded, and strategy can split the field. The back straight and hairpin give genuine overtaking, so a poor qualifying is recoverable. Keep the weather in mind: the race starts mid-afternoon local time, when tropical storms are most likely, and a sudden downpour has decided races here before, bringing safety cars and a strategy lottery. Favour tyre-kind cars and composed drivers over raw one-lap pace.